000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051919
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N99W to 06N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N 
between 90W and 112W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle mainly NW winds dominate this basin. Seas are 4
to 6 ft, except for 2 ft or less in the Gulf of California. 
Smokey conditions may be ongoing over the near shore waters off 
Guerrero and Michoacan. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate westerly winds will
generally persist into late week offshore Mexico. Fresh to 
strong gap winds will develop Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as 
low pressure develops farther south, then tracks to the NW well 
off the coast of southern Mexico. This pattern may also result in
increased winds and seas beyond 120 nm off the coast of Guerrero
and Michoacan from late Fri through Sun. Farther north, weak 
ridging will support gentle to moderate NW winds and subsiding NW
swell through late week. Expect moderate NW winds along with 
more NW swell off Baja California by the end of week related to a
weakening trough moving into the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Fri through Sun. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will continue for the 
next several days over the region. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in lingering NW swell are
ongoing north of 26N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere a weak 
subtropical ridge north of 20N is maintaining light to gentle 
breezes north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, except for moderate 
trade winds west of 130W. Moderate southerly winds are noted 
south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, winds will increase along with additional 
swell across the waters north of 25N starting Fri, accompanying a
weak cold front that dissipates as it moves eastward across the 
region. Southerly swell east of 105W will subside into late week.
 
$$
KONARIK