000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051515
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N95W to 06N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 11N 
between 90W and 110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

West of Baja California, generally gentle NW wind prevail with
seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Light breezes and near flat seas 
are noted in the Gulf of California. Farther south, gentle to 
mainly westerly winds persist with 4 to 6 ft seas off southern 
Mexico. Smokey conditions may be ongoing over the near shore 
waters off Guerrero and Michoacan. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate westerly winds will persist
into late week off southern Mexico. Fresh to strong gap winds 
are possible Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as low pressure 
develops farther south, then tracks to the NW well off the coast 
of southern Mexico. This pattern may also result in increased 
winds and seas beyond 120 nm off the coast of Guerrero and 
Michoacan from late Fri through Sun. Farther north, weak ridging 
will support gentle to moderate NW winds and subsiding NW swell 
through mid week. Expect moderate NW winds along with more NW 
swell off Baja California by the end of week related to a trough 
moving into the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Fri through Sun. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will continue for the 
next several days over the region. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas in lingering NW swell north 
of 26N between 120W and 130W. Elsewhere a weak subtropical ridge
north of 20N is maintaining light to gentle breezes north of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, except for moderate trade winds west of 
130W. Moderate southerly winds are noted south of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, the area of 7 to 8 ft swell will subside
by tonight. Winds will increase along with additional swell 
across the waters north of 25N starting Fri, accompanying a weak 
cold front that dissipates as it moves eastward across the 
region. Southerly swell east of 105W will subside into late week.
 
$$
KONARIK