000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041929
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N81W to 11N103W to 08N119W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to 05N131W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 
11N between 93W and 102W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

W of Baja California, generally moderate NW winds are ongoing
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Light breezes and slight seas are 
evident across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW
breezes prevail off southern Mexico, with 4 to 5 ft seas in 
subsiding SW swell.

For the forecast, NW winds are diminishing off Baja California, 
but NW swell will persist into Wed morning. Expect moderate NW 
winds along with more NW swell off Baja California by the end of 
week related to a weak cold front or trough moving into the 
region. Looking ahead for southern Mexico, limited fresh to 
strong NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind may occur Fri related
to low pressure farther south into the tropical waters. The low 
pressure may bring increased winds and seas to the waters off 
Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will persist throughout the Mexican offshore 
waters through Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu through Sat night. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will continue for the next 
several days over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific 
offshore zones. Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of
the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated through the weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area 
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the 
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 26N and 
east of 130W. Seas north of 26N and east of 130W range from 5 to
8 ft, due to northerly swell in the area. Elsewhere gentle to 
moderate winds exist elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW 
and NW swell. 

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern 
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to 
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed, 
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will 
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W late Thu, 
following a weakening cold front entering the waters north of 
25N and west of 130W.
 
$$
KONARIK