000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040915
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N105W to 08N115W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 04N135W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 08N 
between 95W and 100W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A scatterometer pass from 04 UTC indicated fresh to strong W to
NW winds off Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere off Baja California,
ship observations show moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja 
California, between the subtropical ridge to the west and lower 
pressure over northeast Mexico. The ship observations also 
confirm seas are still 6 to 9 ft off Baja California, due to a 
component of NW swell. Light breezes and slight seas are evident 
across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW breezes
prevail off southern Mexico, with 4 to 5 ft seas in subsiding SW
swell.

For the forecast, NW winds will diminish off Baja California this
morning, but NW swell will persist through tonight. Expect 
moderate NW winds along with more NW swell off Baja California by
the end of week related to a weak cold front or trough moving 
into the region. Looking ahead for southern Mexico, a limited 
fresh to strong NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind event may 
occur on Fri related to low pressure farther south into the 
tropical waters. The low pressure may bring increased winds and 
seas to the waters off Oaxaca and Guerrero Fri and Sat. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will persist throughout the 
Mexican offshore waters through Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 5 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu night through Sat. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will continue for the next 
several days over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific 
offshore zones. Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of
the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated through at least Sat 
night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area 
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the 
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 25N and 
east of 125W. An altimeter pass from 03 UTC indicated lingering 
seas to 8 ft north of 26N and east of 130W. This is due to 
northerly swell in the area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds 
exist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern 
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to 
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed, 
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will 
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, 
following a cold front entering the waters north of 25N and west
of 130W.
 
$$
Christensen