000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040324
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 14N97W to 09N115W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N115W to 05N130W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 08N 
between 95W and 100W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Current ship observations show moderate to fresh NW winds off
Baja California, between the subtropical ridge to the west and
lower pressure over northeast Mexico. The ship observations also
confirm seas are still 6 to 9 ft off Baja California, due to a
component of NW swell. Light breezes and slight seas are evident
across the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW 
breezes prevail off southern Mexico, with 4 to 5 ft seas in
subsiding SW swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja 
California will diminish through Tue as high pressure west of the
area weakens. NW swell will off Baja California will subside 
through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh NW winds along with 
more NW swell off Baja California by the end of week related to a
weak cold front or trough moving into the region. Looking ahead 
for southern Mexico, a limited fresh to strong NE Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind wind event may occur on Fri related to low 
pressure farther south into the tropical waters. Elsewhere, winds
throughout the Mexican offshore zones should remain quiescent 
into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 5 ft in lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu night through Sat. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will continue for the next 
several days over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific 
offshore zones. Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of
the Southern Hemisphere is anticipated through at least Sat 
night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area 
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the 
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 25N and 
east of 125W. An altimeter pass from several hours ago indicated
lingering seas to 8 ft north of 28N and east of 130W. This is 
due to northerly swell in the area. Elsewhere gentle to moderate 
winds exist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW 
swell. 

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern 
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to 
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed, 
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will 
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, 
following a cold front entering the waters north of 25N and west
of 130W.
 
$$
Christensen