000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032022
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N88W and then resumes
from 11N110W to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from 07N116W to
05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 16N between 93W and 100W and from 04N to 07N east of 92W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The relatively tight pressure gradient between the subtropical 
high centered northwest of the area and lower pressure over the 
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico is producing fresh to 
strong northwesterly to northerly winds off the northern portion 
of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are up to 11 ft in that 
area in mixed swell. South of Cabo Corrientes, gentle to moderate
NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are ongoing. An upper- 
level and low-level disturbance is producing a few showers and 
thunderstorms over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and surrounding areas 
generally from 11N to 16N between 93W and 100W. Conditions are 
relatively quiet elsewhere.

Looking ahead, the moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja 
California will diminish tonight and Tue, although large NW swell
will persist for another day or two. A limited fresh to strong 
NE Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind wind event may occur on Fri. 
Elsewhere, winds throughout the Mexican offshore zones should 
remain quiescent into the weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are 
generally 4 to 5 ft in lingering southerly swell. A few showers 
and thunderstorms are occurring off the coast of Costa Rica and
Panama, primarily associated with the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region are expected Thu night through Sat. 
Elsewhere, gentle winds are expected for the next several days 
over the Central American and Equatorial Pacific offshore zones. 
Likewise, no significant long-period swell out of the Southern 
Hemisphere is anticipated through at least Sat night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical high pressure system centered north of the area 
continues to supporting mainly moderate trades across the 
forecast waters west of about 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 25N and 
east of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds exist elsewhere with 5 to 
7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. 

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern 
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to 
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed, 
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will 
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, 
following a cold front entering the waters north of 25N and west
of 130W.
 
$$
Cangialosi