000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from 07N116W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 15N between 93W and 100W and from 04N to 07N east of 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The relatively tight pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high centered near 36N138W and lower pressure over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico is producing fresh to strong northwesterly to northerly winds off the northern portion of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are up to 11 ft in that area in mixed swell. South of Cabo Corrientes, gentle to moderate NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are ongoing. An upper-level and low-level disturbance is producing a few showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and surrounding areas generally from 11N to 16N between 93W and 100W. Conditions are relatively quiet elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish through this morning as the lower pressure over the southwest U.S. moves farther east. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California through late today. Large NW swell will propagate across the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through Tue. Farther south, large SW swell will subside through late today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in lingering southerly swell. A few showers and thunderstorms are occurring off the coast of Costa Rica and Panama, primarily associated with the monsoon trough. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will persist over the region through Fri night, except for moderate to fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo starting Thu night. SW swell will diminish by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 36N138W is supporting mainly moderate trades across the forecast waters west of 125W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted on the east side of the high north of 25N and east of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds exist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed, then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, following a cold front entering the waters north of 25N and west of 130W. $$ Landsea/Cangialosi