000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030810
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N115W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N115W to 08N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 05N east of 90W, and 05N to 07N 
between 85W and 95W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong NW winds
off the coast of Baja California Norte, and fresh to strong SW to
W gap winds over the northern Gulf of California. These winds are
due to a tight pressure gradient between high pressure west of
the region, and lower pressure over the southwest U.S. Seas are 8
to 11 ft off Baja California Norte and the northern part of Baja
California Sur with a component of NW swell. Seas are likely
reaching up to 6 ft seas over the northern Gulf of California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident off
Baja California Sur and in the entrances to the Gulf of
California. South of Cabo Corrientes, gentle to moderate NW winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell are ongoing. An upper trough
moving over southern Mexico is supporting a few showers and
thunderstorms over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off Chiapas and 
Oaxaca beyond 120 nm.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds over the northern 
Gulf of California will diminish through this morning as the
lower pressure over the southwest U.S. moves farther east. 
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja 
California through late today. Large NW swell will propagate 
across the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through 
Tue. Farther south, large SW swell will subside through late
today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle 
winds prevailing across most the region. Seas are generally 4 to
5 ft in lingering southerly swell. A few showers and 
thunderstorms are active off Costa Rica beyond 120 nm, north of 
the monsoon trough, as well as in the Gulf of Panama and off
southern Colombia.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will persist over the 
region through Fri night, except for moderate to fresh gap winds 
in the Gulf of Papagayo starting Thu night. SW swell will 
diminish by mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1031 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N139W will
the forecast waters west of 115W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds
are noted north of 25N and east of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to
NE winds elsewhere west of 120W and north of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. Gentle westerly winds 
are evident east of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW 
swell. 

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern 
across the forecast region trough into mid week. Large northwest
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to 
spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W into Wed, 
then subside thereafter. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will 
move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, 
following a cold front entering the waters north of 25N and west
of 130W.
 
$$
Christensen