000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N115W. The ITCZ continues from 07N115W to 08N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 85W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the southwest U.S. is supporting fresh to strong SW to W gap winds across the northern Gulf of California. with seas reaching as high as six feet. Recent altimeter satellite passes confirmed seas reaching 8 to 10 ft off Baja California Norte. Concurrent NW winds are mostly moderate to fresh, so much of these seas is attributable to NW swell moving into the area. Farther south, gentle to moderate NW winds are noted, but with 5 to 7 ft seas in mainly SW swell. Smoke is still heavy over land, but not as prevalent over the coastal waters as it has been over the past several days. For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish through early Mon as the trough over the southwest U.S. moves farther east. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja California through Mon. Large NW swell will propagate across the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through Tue morning. Farther south, the SW swell will subside through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle winds prevailing across most the region. Seas are generally in the 4 to 5 ft range in lingering southerly swell. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off western Panama and Costa Rica beyond 120 nm, north of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region through tonight. Southerly winds will increase south of the monsoon trough axis Mon through Tue, then diminish. SW swell will persist through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1030 mb high pressure is centered north of the area near 35N140W. This dominates the forecast waters west of 115W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted north of 25N and east of 125W, with gentle to moderate N to NE winds elsewhere west of 120W and north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ with 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell. Gentle westerly winds are evident east of 120W with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W through Tue, then subside through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, following a cold front entering the NW corner of the forecast area. $$ Christensen