000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 05N95W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W to 08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10.5N between 84W and 86W, including the Nicoya peninsula in Costa Rica. Similar convection is near 08N79W in the Gulf of Panama. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... W of Baja California: A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California will support fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia through Mon night. These winds will filter through the passages into the north and central Gulf of California through early Mon morning. Expect winds of 20 to 30 kt in the Gulf of California this evening, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft. A large NW swell event is currently affecting the waters W of Baja California, with building seas to 8-9 ft N of Punta Eugenia. This swell event will continue to propagate southward covering much of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon morning. At the same time, seas of 9-12 ft are expected N of Punta Eugenia. Then, seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft W of Baja California by late Tue. Elsewhere: Smoke from agricultural and forest fires is limiting visibility over the coastal waters of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan. A sharp upper level trough reaching from central Mexico to south of the Revillagigedo Islands was supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Tehuantepec region this morning. Convection has diminished as the day goes on. Gentle to moderate winds will persist through mid week, with SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle winds prevailing across most the region. Stronger winds are noted off Costa Rica due to convective activity. Seas are generally in the 4 to 5 ft range in lingering southerly swell. Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region through tonight. Southerly winds will increase south of the monsoon trough axis Mon through Tue, then diminish. SW swell will persist through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb located north of the area near 35N139W dominates the forecast waters west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 10N to 25N west of 130W, and 6 to 8 ft seas primarily in NW swell. Moderate northerly winds are also seen per scatterometer data N of 20N between 116W and 122W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail elsewhere. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W through Tue, then subside through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by Thu night, following a cold front entering the NW corner of the forecast area. $$ GR