000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 05N95W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06N120W to 08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 08N between 78W and 80W, from 05N to 08N between 84W and 90W, and in the Tehuantepec region N of 13.5N between 92W and 96W. Similar convection is within about 60 nm offshore El Salvador and Guatemala, and also near the Nicoya peninsula in Costa Rica. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is moving through southern California and into Baja California Norte. This follows a surface trough moving through the Colorado River Valley, and extending southward to the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds likely follow the trough over the northern Gulf, north of 29N, with 4 to 5 ft seas. Meanwhile moderate to fresh NW winds are noted off the Baja California coast, with 5 to 7 ft seas, although seas are up to 8 ft in northerly swell near Guadalupe Island. Farther south, smoke from agricultural and forest fires is limiting visibility over the coastal waters of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist in SW swell. A sharp upper trough reaching from central Mexico to south of the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Tehuantepec region as previously mentioned. For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will persist over the north and central Gulf of California through tonight when winds are forecast to increase to 25-30 kt. The front will dissipate through today, but high pressure building into the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds west of Baja California through Mon, with building seas due to NW swell. Farther south, gentle to moderate winds will persist through mid week, with SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle SW winds prevailing across most the region. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range in lingering southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region through today. Southerly winds will increase south of the monsoon trough axis tonight through Tue, then diminish. SW swell will persist through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area dominates the forecast waters west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 17N to 23N west of 135W, and 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail elsewhere. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W through Tue, then subside through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into the waters north of 27N and west of 130W by late Thu, following a cold front entering the area. $$ GR