000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 85W and 88W,
and from 06N to 08N between 92W and 95W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is moving through southern California and into
Baja California Norte. This follows a surface trough moving 
through the Colorado River Valley, and extending southward to the
northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong westerly gap winds 
likely follow the trough over the northern Gulf, north of 29N,
with 4 to 5 ft seas. Meanwhile moderate to fresh NW winds are 
noted off the Baja California coast, with 5 to 7 ft seas, 
although seas are up to 8 ft in northerly swell near Guadalupe 
Island. Farther south, smoke from agricultural and forest fires 
is limiting visibility over the coastal waters of Oaxaca, 
Michoacan, and Guerrero. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and 5 
to 7 ft seas persist in SW swell. A sharp upper trough reaching 
from central Mexico to south of the Revillagigedo Islands is 
supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon 
trough off Chiapas and Oaxaca beyond 90 nm. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will 
follow the trough over the northern Gulf of California through 
tonight. The front will dissipate through today, but high pressure
building into the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds will prevail west of Baja California through Mon, with 
building seas due to NW swell. Farther south, gentle to moderate 
winds will persist through mid week, with SW swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicate light to gentle 
SW winds prevailing across most the region, except for moderate 
SW winds between western Panama and southwest Colombia. Seas are 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range in lingering southerly swell. 
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along the 
monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through today. Southerly winds will increase south
of the monsoon trough axis tonight through Tue, then diminish. 
SW swell will persist through mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area dominates the waters west of 
120W. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W, and 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle 
to moderate winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevail 
elsewhere.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest 
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will spread south of 
30N and mainly between 120W and 130W through Tue,then subside 
through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will move into 
the waters north of 25N and west of 25W by late Thu, following a 
cold front entering the area.
 
$$
Christensen