583 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020209
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N120W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 85W and 88W.
Scattered moderate convection from 09N to 14N between 106W and
108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge reaches from 1027 mb high pressure near 32N135W 
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough is 
analyzed moving into the Colorado River Valley, and extending 
southward to the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong 
westerly gap winds likely follow the trough over the northern 
Gulf, north of 29N. Seas are up to 4 ft, but will likely build 
tonight as the winds continue. Meanwhile moderate to fresh NW 
winds are noted off the Baja California coast, with 5 to 7 ft 
seas, although seas are up to 8 ft in northerly swell near 
Guadalupe Island. Farther south, smoke from agricultural and 
forest fires is limiting visibility over the coastal waters of 
Oaxaca, Michoacan, and Guerrero. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas persist in SW swell. A sharp upper trough 
reaching from central Mexico to south of the Revillagigedo 
Islands is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the 
monsoon trough off Chiapas and Oaxaca beyond 180 nm. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will 
follow the trough over the northern Gulf of California through 
Sun night. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail west of 
Baja California through Mon, with building seas due to NW swell. 
Farther south, gentle to moderate winds will persist through mid 
week, with SW swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier scatterometer data indicated light to gentle SW winds 
prevailing across most the region, except for moderate SW winds
between western Panama and southwest Colombia. Seas are 
generally in the 4 to 6 ft range in lingering southerly swell.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along the
monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through Sun. Southerly winds will increase south 
of the monsoon trough axis Sun night and Mon. SW swell will 
persist through mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge associated with 1027 mb high pressure near 32N135W 
dominates the waters west of 120W. The pressure gradient between
the high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 20N to 25N west of
135W, and 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in 
the 4 to 6 ft range prevail elsewhere.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest 
swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will spread south of 
30N and mainly between 120W and 130W Sun through Tue. 
 
$$
Christensen