000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 10N90W to 13N110W to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 78W and 83W, and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14N between 94W and 95.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 12N between 97W and 101W, and from 10N to 16N between 102W and 109W. A weak low pressure appears to be developing along the monsoon trough near 12N118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressures over Mexico is supporting mainly moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and light to gentle winds elsewhere near the Baja California peninsula. Seas are 5 to 7 ft primarily in southerly swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia tonight through Mon morning as the pressure gradient tighten there. These winds winds will filter through Baja California passages into the northern and central Gulf of California on Sun, building seas to 6 or 7 ft over the northern part of the Gulf. Large NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia later today, building seas to 8-9 ft early on Sun. This swell event will continue to propagate southward covering much of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon morning. At the same time, seas of 8-12 ft are expected N of Punta Eugenia. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by late Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Stronger winds are noted from 08N to 13N between 102W and 104W due to the presence of convective activity. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range in lingering southerly swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region through Sun. Southerly winds will increase south of the monsoon trough axis Sun night and Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered north of the area dominates the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the forecast region trough at least Tue. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly winds will spread south of 30N and mainly between 120W and 130W Sun through Tue. $$ GR