000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011517
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
07N78W to 06N80W to 13N106W to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N124W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
03N to 08N E of 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 101W and 109W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressures over 
Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds near the Baja 
California peninsula, and light to gentle winds elsewhere over 
the waters off Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in a mix of west and 
southwest swell over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
west of Baja California through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will 
filter through Baja California passages into the northern and 
central Gulf of California Sun evening. Large NW swell will 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia later today, building seas to
8-9 ft on Sun. This swell event will propagate southward covering
much of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon. Seas of 8-11 ft
are expected N of Punta Eugenia.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across
most the region. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in lingering 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across most
of the region through Sun. Southerly winds will increase south 
of the monsoon trough axis Sun night and Mon. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered north of the
area dominates the forecast waters. The pressure gradient 
between the high and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate trade winds north of the ITCZ, and 5 to 8 ft seas. 
Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail 
elsewhere.

High pressure will continue north of the area through the  
weekend. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly
winds will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W Sun and 
Mon. Marine conditions will improve considerably Tue and Wed.
 
$$
GR