503 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N84W to 12N107W to 
06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N 
between 83W and 89W, and from 10N to 15N between 103W and 112W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 
113W and 116W, and from 02N to 04N between 134W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered near 
33N132W is west of the Baja California peninsula. The gradient 
between the ridge and low pressures over Mexico is supporting 
moderate NW winds near the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the waters off Mexico. Seas
are in the 5-6 ft range in a mix of west and southwest swell over
the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
west of Baja California through Sat night, becoming fresh on Sun.
Fresh to locally strong winds will filter through Baja California
passages into the northern and central Gulf of California Sun 
night. Large NW swell will build west of Baja California Sun and 
Mon. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the region 
Tue and Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scatterometer data indicates light to gentle winds prevail across
most the region. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in lingering 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the 
region through Sun night. Southerly winds will increase south of
the monsoon trough axis early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge associated with high pressure centered north of the
area dominates the forecast waters. The area of high pressure is
bisected by the surface trough that extends from 38N130W through
32N140W to 29N147W. The gradient between the broad high and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ, and seas in the 6 to 7 ft
range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range 
prevail elsewhere.

High pressure will continue north of the area through the  
weekend. Large northwest swell and fresh to strong northerly
winds will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W Sun and 
Mon. Marine conditions will improve considerably Tue and Wed.
 
$$
Mundell