000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292116
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following 
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, 
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
08N79W to 09N84W to 08N89W to 11N106W. The ITCZ extends from
07N117W to 03N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 82W and 85W,
from 05N to 09N between 96W and 107W, from 12N to 15N between
103W and 108W, and from 02N to 13N between 109W and 126W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 
86W and 96W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between this are of high
pressure and low pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to
locally fresh winds off the Baja California peninsula as well as
in the central and southern Gulf of California. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico,
except locally fresh offshore of Oaxaca. Seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range in a mix of northwest and south swell over the open waters 
off Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the region will support 
moderate to fresh winds off Baja California, locally strong in
the central and southern Gulf of California through the end of
the week. A set of northwest swell will build west of Baja
California late in the upcoming weekend into early next week. 
Farther south, a moderate southerly swell will gradually subside 
through the upcoming weekend.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are noted in the Papagayo region. Light to gentle
winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in 
lingering southerly swell, except 5-8 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, moderate winds will pulse in the Papagayo 
region into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds will persist across the region, increasing to gentle to 
moderate early next week. Moderate southerly swell will gradually
decay through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered north of the area with a ridge axis 
extending from 32N130W southeast to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
mainly moderate winds north of the ITCZ, locally fresh, with 
seas in the 4-7 ft range, locally to 8 ft near 13N114W where a
deep area of convection is persisting near a surface trough. 
Light to gentle winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail 
elsewhere.

High pressure will continue north of the area with these general
conditions prevailing into the upcoming weekend. A set of 
northwest swell with building seas will propagate south of 30N 
between 120W and 140W late in the weekend into early next week.
Conditions will improve into mid-week.
 
$$
Lewitsky