000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 07N92W to low 
pressure near 07N99W 1009 mb to 08N105W and to 10N113W, where 
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 08N123W to 06N130W and to beyond the area at 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
180 nm south of the trough between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 94W-104W,
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W-125W, within 60 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 124W-132W, within 30 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 129W-132W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong northwest winds over the central Gulf of California will
diminish early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in 
a mix of northwest and south swell over the open waters off 
Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build west of the region Wed 
supporting fresh winds off Baja California. Farther south, 
slight to moderate seas will begin to build Wed as a new set of 
southerly swell arrives.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo
and moderate north winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across 
the region, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap 
winds will tonight across the Gulf of Papagayo. Additional 
southerly swell will begin to move propagate into the region 
tonight and through early Thu, at which time it will begin to 
decay. Prior to doing so, the swell will induce maximum seas of 
8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough is analyzed from near 31N117W to 25N122W. The latest
ASCAT data pass shows moderate to fresh northwest to north 
behind this trough. Another trough is analyzed at the entrance to
the Gulf of California from 24N108W to 21N109W. The same ASCAT 
data pass depicts moderate to fresh west to northwest winds 
within 90 nm southwest of the trough and light to gentle winds 
elsewhere near the trough. A 1009 mb low is analyzed along the 
monsoon trough at 07N98W. High pressure is present elsewhere over
the area. A weak pressure gradient remains between the high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. This 
gradient is supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds north of
the ITCZ to near 15N and west of about 124W. Seas over this area
are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in 
the 4-6 ft range are present elsewhere. Slightly stronger high 
pressure will build southward into the area through the end of 
the week, while at the same time a cold front approaches the 
northwest corner of the area. The cold front will become
stationary and weaken. The low pressure currently near 07N98W 
will track in a general west to west-northwest motion through 
Wed while weakening. Models suggest that a low could form along 
the monsoon trough near 111W by early Thu enhancing convection 
along the trough.
 
$$
Aguirre