000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Apr 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 10N85W to 09N98W to 11N107W to 10N120W and to 07N128W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond the area at 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of trough between 109W-115W, within 120 nm south of trough between 98W-101W and within 120 nm north of trough between 118W- 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-15N between 108W-115W, within 60 nm south of trough between 123W-126W and also within 30 nm of ITCZ between 136W- 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range due to a mix of northwest and south swell over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west gap winds will pulse into the northern Gulf of California today, ahead of a trough moving through the region. These winds may briefly reach to near gale force tonight before diminishing to fresh speeds early Tue. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected over small areas of the central Gulf of California Tue night, but should be brief in duration. High pressure will build west of the region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off Baja California by mid-week. Farther south, slight to moderate seas will build by mid- week as a new set of southerly swell arrives. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo and moderate north winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range with lingering southerly swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist across the region, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and again Mon night into Tue. Additional southerly swell will move into the region by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extending from the extreme northwest corner of Mexico to across northern Baja California and to 29N120W to 26N127W and to near to 23N138W will weaken today as it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N. The subtropical ridge over the northern waters has weakened and loosened the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient will support mostly moderate trades through mid-week. Seas near 8 ft in mixed swell will remain mainly from 06N to 12N west of 135W this morning. Elsewhere modest winds and seas will change little. Looking ahead, trade winds may increase later in the week over tropical waters west of 122W as the subtropical ridge builds to the north. $$ Aguirre