000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251501
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N105W to 07N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 05N125W to 04N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 09N 
between 100W and 105W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 08N to 12N, between 107W and 112W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side
of the ITCZ between 120W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weakening high pressure over the area is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over
the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will pulse 
into the northern Gulf of California tonight, ahead of a trough 
moving through the region. High pressure will build west of the 
region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off Baja
California by mid week. Farther south, slight to moderate seas 
will build by mid week as a new set of southerly swell arrives.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo
and moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle 
winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range with
lingering southerly swell.

For the forecast, Gentle to moderate winds will persist across
the region today, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to 
strong gap winds will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of 
Papagayo Mon and Tue. Additional southerly swell will move into 
the region by mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are currently active along
the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 105W. A few isolated 
thunderstorms are active off Costa Rica and west of Colombia.

A cold front from 30N127W to 27N140W will weaken through Mon as
it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N. Although weak,
the front also weakens the subtropical ridge, and this pattern 
will support mostly moderate trades farther south into the 
tropics through mid week. Seas will still reach near 8 ft in 
mixed swell mainly from 06N to 12N west of 135W through Mon. 
Elsewhere modest winds and seas will persist. Looking ahead,
trade winds may increase later in the week over tropical waters
west of 125W as the subtropical ridge builds to the north.

$$
Christensen