000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242022
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Apr 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N85W to 08N115W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N115W to 05N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 100W and 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ship observations and scatterometer satellite passes
indicated moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California are
diminishing. These winds have been active between a ridge west of
the area, and lower pressure over north central Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds are evident elsewhere over Mexican offshore
waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft primarily in southerly swell in open
waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Areas of smoke
from agricultural and forest fires are evident along the coast
between Huatulco and Zihuatanejo. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will pulse 
into the northern Gulf of California Sun night, ahead of a trough
moving through the region. High pressure will build west of the 
region in the wake of the trough, supporting fresh winds off Baja
California by mid week. Farther south, southerly swell impacting
the waters south of 20N will subside through late Sun. Another 
group of southerly swell will arrive by mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over and downstream of the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere. Seas are in
the 6 to 7 ft range over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo,
and 5-6 ft elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing
off western Panama, beyond 180 nm.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will persist through 
Sun, with subsiding southerly swell. Fresh to strong gap winds 
will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon and 
Tue. Additional southerly swell will move into the region by mid 
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge over the
northern waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 130W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this region. The ridging over the northern waters will weaken as
a dying cold front moves across the waters north of 25N into Mon.
This will allow the areal coverage of moderate to fresh trade winds
to diminish into early next week.

$$
Christensen