000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Apr 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N94W to 08N110W to 06N115W. ITCZ continues from 06N115W to west of 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 98W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N between 115W and 120W, and from 06N to 09N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from high pressure northwest of the region to between Los Cabos and the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data and ship observations indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds off Baja California. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed 5 to 8 ft seas off Baja California. This is largely due to a mix of NW and S swell. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas persist in the Gulf of California. Farther south off southern Mexico, gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, the winds off Baja California will diminish into Sat as the high pressure west of the area weakens. Meanwhile, long period southerly swell will maintain seas of 5-7 ft in open waters through Sat night before subsiding. A trough will move across Baja California Mon and Tue, followed by moderate to fresh NW winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent ship observations and scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh E gap winds emerging out of the Gulf of Papagayo and reaching as far west as 90W. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere. Seas are likely 6 to 9 ft off Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala, in part due to the gap wind flow but also a component of longer-period SW swell. This swell is impacting the offshore areas farther south as well, where seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident off Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the fresh gap winds will pulse mainly overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun, then becoming fresh to strong early next week. The long period cross- equatorial southerly swell will subside through Sat night. Another smaller swell group will move into the region by mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure located north of the forecast area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 08N to 20N west of 125W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this region. High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, and will dominate the forecast waters during the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Christensen