000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N92W to 09N108W. The ITCZ axis stretches from 06N115W to 05N140W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and runs from 12N107W to 05N112W. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the surface trough near 08N110W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 150 nm N of the low center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 13N between 107W and 114W. Similar convection can also be found from 03N to 08N between 82W and 100W, and from 04N to 09N between 114W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, producing moderate NW to N winds across the area. Seas are 5 to 7 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro and 4 to 6 ft elsewhwere. Long period southerly swell is reaching the waters W of Baja California to build seas to 6-7 ft across most of the region by tonight. Gulf of California: Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail across the Gulf the rest of the week. Winds are forecast to veer to the W and NW early next week. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Winds have diminished across the Tehuantepec region as the gap forcing across the area weakens considerably. The most recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh N to NE winds from the Tehuantepec region and downwind of the Gulf to near 12N97W. Seas generated by this recent gap wind event will continue to spread far offshore and subside to 6-8 ft by tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure building over the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo area through Fri morning, with associated seas building to 8-9 ft. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these winds in the Papagayo region and downwind to near 88W. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long period cross- equatorial southerly swell will continue to build seas to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between high pressure located north of the forecast area near 34N137W and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 08N to 20N west of 120W based on scatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across this region. High pressure will continue to gradually weaken as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Then, high pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters during the upcoming weekend. Northerly swell across the waters north of 29N between 120W and 128W will subside to less than 8 ft tonight. $$ GR