000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N90W to 09N108W to 08N113W. The ITCZ axis continues from 08N113W to 07N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 106W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 97W and 102W, from 06N to 10N between 122W and 126W, and from 04N to 07N between 131W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, producing moderate NW to N winds across the area. Seas are 5 to 6 ft across most of the forecast region, except 6-8 ft in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia. Long period southerly swell will reach the waters W of Baja California on Thu and combine with NW swell to build seas to 6-7 ft across most of the region. Gulf of California: S to SW winds in the northern part of the Gulf will increase to 20-30 kt tonight, with 5 to 7 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh S to SW winds N of 29N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the northern Gulf through Thu night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the region. Gulf of Tehunatepec: A weak low pressure spinning over the SW Gulf of Mexico supports a northerly gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 30 kt tonight, with seas building to 7-10 ft downstream of the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure building over the NW Caribbean will support fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo area through Fri morning, with associated seas building to 8-9 ft. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long period cross- equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 8 ft across the waters between Ecuador and Galapagos Islands through late Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient between strong high pressure well north of the forecast area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports a large area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 08N to 30N W of 125W based on latest scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 8 ft across this region. High pressure will gradually weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a cold front approaches from the west. Northerly swell will propagate across the waters north of 28N between 118W and 131W through late Thu, building seas in the northern waters to 8-9 ft. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft Thu night and Fri. $$ Mundell