000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N75W to 08N90W to 09N105W to 06N115W. The ITCZ axis
continues from 06N115W to 04N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection can be found from 03N-07N E 80W, from
02N-05N between 85W-89W, from 04N-10N between 110W- 115W, and from
04N-08N W of 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends into the offshore waters west of Baja California,
producing moderate NW to N winds across the area. Seas are 5 to 
6 ft across most of the forecast region, except 6-7 ft north of 
Punta Eugenia. NW swell will impact the waters N of Punta Eugenia
today, with seas building to 8 ft through Thu.

Gulf of California: A weak cold front will push southward across
the northern part of the Gulf later today. Fresh to strong S-SW 
winds are expected ahead of the front through tonight, with seas
building to 5-7 ft in the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are expected over the northern Gulf Thu and Thu 
night, with gentle to moderate southerly winds elsewhere. 

Gulf of Tehunatepec: A weak low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico
and its associated cold front will support a northerly gap wind 
event across the Tehuantepec region through Thu morning. Winds of
20 to 30 kt are expected, with seas building to 11 ft downstream
of the Gulf tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure building over the NW Caribbean will support fresh 
to strong winds across the Papagayo area this evening through Fri
morning, with associated seas building to 8-9 ft by Thu. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through Sun. Large, long 
period cross-equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 8-9 ft
across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
through Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure well north of
the forecast area and lower pressures in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ supports an large area of moderate to fresh trade winds 
from 08N to 30N W of 125W based on latest scatterometer data. 
Seas are 7 to 8 ft across this region. High pressure will gradually
weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a cold front approaches 
from the west. Northerly swell will propagate across the waters 
north of 28N between 120W and 132W through Thu night, and 
increase seas in the northern waters to 8-9 ft. Seas will subside
to less than 8 ft Thu night and Fri. 

$$
GR