000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to
06N90W to 06N107W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N107W to 05N130W
to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 02N 
to 05N between 80W and 86W, from 05N to 09N between 107W and
118W, and from 05N to 07N between 120W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong 1035 mb high pressure is centered northwest of the
forecast area. The pressure gradient between this high and lower
pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds across the Baja California offshore waters with seas up to 
6 ft. These winds are expected to change little this week. Seas 
will increase to 7 to 8 ft in N swell NW of Punta Eugenia by Wed.
This swell event will persist on Thu with seas to 8 ft near 
30N120W. 

Gulf of California: A cold front is expected to push southward 
across the northern Gulf on Wed. Ahead of the front, winds in the
northern Gulf are forecast to shift to S to SW and increase to 
fresh to strong by this evening. These strong winds are forecast
to continue through Thu. 

Gulf of Tehunatepec: Fresh to strong winds are expected to return
to the Gulf region tonight as a weak low pressure remains over 
the SW Gulf of Mexico. These winds will persist through Thu morning.
Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf to near 13N96W by
Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo on
Wed evening and continue through early Fri morning. Seas will 
build to 8 to 9 ft by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will 
continue to prevail from Fri afternoon through the weekend with 
seas 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are generally light across the 
area and will remain that way over the next few days.

Large and long period cross-equatorial southerly swell will build
seas to 8 ft just S of the Galapagos Islands by Wed morning, and
across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by
Wed evening. These marine conditions will persist on Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high pressure center
located north of the area and lower pressures across the ITCZ 
supports fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds from 21N to
28N W of 128W. Seas are up to 8 to 9 ft across that region. The
high pressure system is expected to weaken later this week as a 
cold front moves across the Gulf of California. This pattern 
change should cause the trades to weaken by Wed with moderate to 
locally fresh winds prevailing the rest of the week. Seas are 
expected to remain elevated since large cross-equatorial
southerly swell is forecast to continue east of about 130W 
through the week.

$$
GR