000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200924
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 06N98W to 06N110W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N110W to
05N125W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
13N between 81W to 117W and from 04N to 09N between 120W to 132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong 1036 mb subtropical high is centered northwest of the 
area. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure
over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
across the Baja California offshore waters with seas up to 6 ft. 
These winds are expected to change little this week. Seas will
increase to 7 to 8 ft by Wed NW of Punta Eugenia in N swell by 
midweek and subside by Thu evening. Seas south of Cabo San Lucas
could build to 8 ft by Fri morning and will subside by Sat. 

Across the Gulf of California, winds and seas are currently
light. A cold front is expected to push southward across the 
northern Gulf on Wed. Ahead of the front, winds in the northern 
Gulf are forecast to shift to S to SW and increase to fresh to 
strong by Tue evening. These strong winds are forecast to continue
through Fri, where winds will become light to gentle through the
weekend.

Fresh to strong winds are expected to return to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec on Tue night and continue through Thu morning. Seas
will build to 8 ft by Wed night. From Thu through the weekend,
light to gentle winds with seas below 6 ft are expected. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will develop across the Gulf of Papagayo on
Wed afternoon and continue through early Fri morning. Seas will 
build to 8 to 9 ft by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds will
continue to prevail from Fri afternoon through the weekend with
seas 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are generally light across the
area and will remain that way over the next few days. 

Large cross- equatorial southerly to southwesterly swell will 
continue to affect the area during the next several days, keeping
seas elevated to 4 to 6 ft through mid-week despite the light 
winds. The combination of the increasing winds and southerly 
swell will likely increase seas to 8 ft across portions of the 
equatorial offshores Wed into Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high north of the area 
and lower pressures across the ITCZ supports fresh to locally 
strong NE to E trade winds between 13N and 27W west of about 
125W. Seas are up to 8 to 9 ft across that region. The high 
pressure system is expected to weaken later this week as a cold 
front moves across the Gulf of California. This pattern change 
should cause the trades to weaken by Wed with moderate to locally
fresh winds prevailing the rest of the week. Seas are expected 
to remain elevated since large cross- equatorial southerly to 
southwesterly swell is expected to continue east of about 130W 
through the week.

$$
AReinhart