000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192052
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 07N100W to 06N110W. The ITCZ axis extends from there to 
04N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to
09N between 92W and 99W and from 05N to 08N between 122W and 
135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF 
MEXICO...

A strong 1034 mb subtropical high is centered northwest of the 
area near 38N138W. The modest pressure gradient between this 
high and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters
with seas up to 6 ft. Although winds are expected to change 
little this week, seas will likely increase a little NW of Punta 
Eugenia in N swell by midweek.

Across the Gulf of California, winds and seas are currently
light. A cold front is expected to push southward across the 
northern Gulf on Wed. Ahead of the front, winds in the northern 
Gulf are forecast to shift to S to SW and increase to fresh to 
strong by Tue evening. These strong winds are forecast to continue
through Thu with seas building to 5 ft.

Fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
diminished, but they could pulse again occassionally at night
late this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are generally light across the area, and are expected to
remain that way during the next couple of days. Large cross-
equatorial southerly to southwesterly swell will continue to 
affect the area during the next several days, keeping seas 
elevated to 4 to 6 ft through mid-week despite the light winds. 
Winds are expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo by 
Thursday as high pressure strengthens to the north of the region.
The combination of the increasing winds and southerly swell will
likely increase seas to 8 ft across portions of the area toward 
the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high north of the area 
and lower pressures across the ITCZ supports fresh to locally 
strong NE to E trade winds between 15N and 25W west of about 
125W. Seas are up to 8 ft across that region. The high pressure 
system is expected to weaken later this week as a cold front 
moves across the Gulf of California. This pattern change should 
cause the trades to weaken by midweek. Seas are expected to 
remain elevated though since large cross-equatorial southerly to 
southwesterly swell is expected to continue east of about 130W 
through the week.

$$
Cangialosi