000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191454
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 08N86W to 07N109W. The ITCZ axis extends from there to 04N125W
to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N
between 92W and 99W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong 1032 mb subtropical high is centered northwest of the
area near 37N138W. The modest pressure gradient between this high
and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally
fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters with 
seas to 6 ft. Although winds are expected to change little this
week, seas will likely increase a little NW of Punta Eugenia in
increasing N swell by midweek.

Across the Gulf of California, winds and seas are currently
light. A cold front is expected to push southward across the 
northern Gulf on Wed. Ahead of the front, winds in the northern 
Gulf are forecast to shift to S to SW and increase to fresh to 
strong by Tue evening. These strong winds are forecast to continue
through Thu with seas building to 5 ft.

Fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are 
expected to dimish later today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are generally light across the area, and are expected to
remain that way during the next couple of days. Large cross-
equatorial southerly to southwesterly swell will continue to 
affect the area during the next several days, keeping seas 
elevated to 4 to 6 ft through mid-week despite the light winds. 
Winds are expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo by 
Thursday as high pressure strengthens to the north of the region.
The combination of the increasing winds and southerly swell will
likely increase seas to 8 ft across portions of the area toward 
the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high near 37N138W and 
lower pressures across the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong 
NE to E trade winds between 15N and 25W west of about 125W. Seas 
are up to 8 ft across that region. The high pressure system is 
expected to weaken later this week as a cold front moves across 
the Gulf of California. This pattern change should cause the 
trades to weaken by midweek. Seas are expected to remain elevated
though since large cross-equatorial southerly to southwesterly 
swell is expected to continue east of about 130W through the 
week.

$$
Cangialosi