000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190336
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Central American coast near 
08N84W to 09N97W to 05N118W. The ITCZ continues from 05N118W to 
04N127W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
03N to 10N and E of 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 101W to 109W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N 
between 124W to 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface high pressure is anchored by a 1028 mb high near 
33N138W and lower pressure continues along western Mexico and 
the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these two 
features continue to support moderate to locally fresh NW winds 
across the Baja California offshore waters overnight with seas 
to 6 ft. Winds are expected to decrease to gentle to moderate NW 
winds early on Mon and then remain at that speed through the 
middle of the week. Seas will increase briefly to 8 ft NW of 
Punta Eugenia by early Wed as the tail of a cold front moves 
across the northern Baja peninsula.

Light to gentle variable winds will prevail through the Gulf of
California through Tue. Winds in the northern Gulf are forecast 
to shift S to SW and increase to fresh to strong again Tue 
afternoon ahead of a cold front that will push south across the 
Gulf of California on Wed. These strong winds will then continue 
through Thu with seas building to 5 ft.

Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into
Mon with seas building to 6 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will occur on Tue night and Wed night with seas building to 8 ft
Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of 
Papagayo on Wed night through Fri night. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft,
building to 8 ft by Thu night. Across the rest of the area, 
light to gentle variable winds will prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas 
through midweek. Long-period SW swell reaching the Equatorial 
offshores will support building seas to 8 ft by midweek. The 
swell will reach the Central America offshores by Mon into Tue. 
Widespread convection will continue to impact the Central 
America, Colombia and Galapagos Islands offshores through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high near 33N138W and 
lower pressures across the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong 
NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 22N, W of 130W with seas to 8
ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with seas to 7 ft are
elsewhere between the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N between 120W 
and 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure along the Gulf of California is also supporting moderate
to fresh N to NE winds N of 20N between 120W and 140W. The far 
NW forecast waters continue to have light to gentle variable 
winds. 

The high pressure will continue to build through early next 
week, supporting fresh to locally strong winds through Tue mainly
W of 125W. Seas in this region are expected to build up to 10 
ft, enhanced by mixed SW and NW swell.

$$
AReinhart