000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N83W to 09N97W to 06N117W. The ITCZ continues from 06N117W to
04N132W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along and near the monsoon trough from 03N to
14N between 77W to 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the ITCZ from 02N to 07N between 121W to 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface high pressure is anchored by a 1026 mb high near 
31N131W and lower pressure continues along western Mexico and 
the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these two 
features will support moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters with seas 5 to 7 ft. These conditions
will prevail through Sun morning. Gentle to moderate NW winds 
will then continue through the middle of the week. Seas will 
increase to 8 ft NW of Punta Eugenia by Wed. 

Winds are expected to increase to fresh along the northern Gulf
of California, N of 27N, this morning and will continue through
this evening. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail through
Wed. A cold front will push south across the Gulf of California
on Wed which will bring fresh to locally strong winds in the
northern Gulf of California Wed into Thu with seas building to 4
to 5 ft. Conditions will improve by Thu night. 

Fresh winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night
with seas building to 5 to 6 ft. By Wed night, winds will
increase to fresh to strong with seas reaching 8 ft. Conditions
are expected to improve by Thu morning with gentle to moderate
winds prevailing the rest of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of 
Papagayo on Wed night through Fri night. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft,
building to 8 ft by Thu night. Across the rest of the area, 
light to gentle winds will prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas through 
midweek. Enhanced long-period SW swell is forecast to reach the
Equatorial offshores today with seas increasing to 8 ft by 
midweek. The swell will reach the Central America offshores by 
Mon. Meanwhile, widespread convection will increase in coverage 
today which will impact the Central America and Colombia 
offshores. Coverage of the convective activity is expected to 
decrease by Sun night but still continue into Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high near 31N131W and 
lower pressures across the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds between the ITCZ and 20N, W of 120W with seas to 8 ft. 
Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with seas to 7 ft are 
elsewhere between the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N between 110W and
125W. The high pressure will continue to build Sun through early
next week, supporting fresh to locally strong winds through Tue 
mainly W of 125W. Seas are expected to build up to 10 ft, 
enhanced by mixed SW and NW swell.

$$
AReinhart