000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170310
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N96W to 06N115W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N115W to 06N125W, then continues west of a
surface trough from 06N132W to beyond 05N140W. A surface trough 
is analyzed within the ITCZ from 08N127W to 04N131W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N east of 
88W, and from 04N to 10N between 95W and 107W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1022 mb high is centered near 29N130W. A surface trough is
analyzed along the main coast of Mexico from 30N111W to 25N108W.
Scatterometer data from earlier today showed moderate to fresh NW
winds near the coast of Baja California. Winds are gentle to 
moderate across the remainder of the area, including the Gulf of
California. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 6 ft, except 1-3 ft in
the Gulf of California. 

Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue west of Baja California
through Sun morning. A moderate gap wind event over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec may occur on Wed. Seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
should remain 5 to 6 ft through Tue night, then increase to 6 to 
8 ft Wed. Seas elsewhere will generally remain 4 to 6 ft over the
offshore waters and less than 3 ft over the Gulf of California.
No significant long-period swell is expected over the Mexican 
offshores through at least Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the
forecast waters. Little change is expected through Mon night. 
Enhanced long-period SW swell may enter the equatorial waters on 
Tue. Widespread shower activity and strong thunderstorms are 
possible east of 95W through Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak pressure gradient between the 1022 mb high near 28N130W 
and lower pressures over the ITCZ/monsoon trough region supports
gentle to moderate and locally fresh NE trade winds. Seas are 
5 to 7 ft across the region. High pressure building north of 30N 
Sun through Tue will procduce fresh to strong trade winds and 7
to 9 ft seas west of 130W. An enhanced SW swell may enter the 
equatorial waters beginning on Tue, raising seas to 8 to 9 ft. 
At the same time enhanced NW swell may enter the northern waters
west of the Baja California, boosting seas there to 8 to 9 ft.

$$
Mundell