000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 08N108W to 05N115W. 
The ITCZ continues from 05N115W to 03N126W, then continues west 
of a surface trough from 04N131W to 04N140W. A surface trough is
analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 09N125W to 01N10W. A 
large area of scattered moderate to strong convection is from 
03N to 08N east of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 04N to 09N between 90W and 112W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 118W-123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge associated with high pressure centered near 30N130W
dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California. 
The gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the 
Gulf of California supports moderate NW winds in this area. Light
to gentle northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the 
offshore waters south of Puerto Angel. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW 
swell off Baja California Norte and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Winds will 
increase slightly N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight and Sat night as 
high pressure develops near 30N130W. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail across the Gulf of California through Tue. Gentle to 
moderate W-NW winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec region 
the remainder of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across the forecast area 
during the next several days. Seas will remain in the 3-6 ft 
range, except S of the Galapagos Islands where long period SW 
swell will maintain sea heights of 5-7 ft. Looking ahead, SW 
swell is forecast to build seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands by the middle of the next week.

The GFS model shows a weak cyclonic circulation developing along
the monsoon trough this weekend. Persistent convection west of 
Panama and Costa Rica and favorable upper level conditions may 
produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Widespread shower 
activity and strong thunderstorms are possible east of 95W this 
weekend, before upper level conditions start to stabilize.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure dominates the forecast waters north of 15N 
west of 110W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally 
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N west of 125W. Seas are
in the 6-7 ft range across the trade wind belt south of 20N. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A low pressure area 
near 30N140W will lift northward today, and high pressure will
build southward across the northern forecast waters, freshening 
winds north of the ITCZ and west of 125W tonight through Sun, 
and seas building to 7-9 ft.

$$
Mundell