000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160300
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N112W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N112W to 05.5N123W, then continues east of a
surface trough from 03.5N130W to 02N140W. A surface trough is 
analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 09N125W to 02N129W. A 
large area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 02N to 11N between 78W and 88W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 105W and 121W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge associated with 1021 mb high pressure centered near
29N131W dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California. The gradient between the ridge and a surface trough 
along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula supports
moderate to locally fresh NW winds in this area. Light to gentle
northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore 
waters south of Puerto Angel. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell off
Baja California Norte and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Winds will increase 
slightly N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as a 
new high pressure center develops near 30N130W. Light to gentle 
winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the next 
several days. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds will prevail across 
the Tehuantepec region the remainder of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across the forecast area 
during the next several days. Seas will remain in the 3-6 ft 
range, except S of the Galapagos Islands where long period SW 
swell will maintain sea heights of 5-7 ft. Looking ahead, SW 
swell is forecast to build seas to 8 ft between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands by the middle of the next week.

The GFS model shows a weak low pressure developing along the 
monsoon trough this weekend. Strong persistent convection west of  
of Panama and Costa Rica and favorable upper level conditions 
are capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. 
Widespread shower activity and strong thunderstorms are possible
east of 95W this weekend before upper level conditions start to
stabilize.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure dominates the northern forecast waters north 
of 15N and west of 110W. The gradient between the high and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N west of 125W.
Seas are in the 6-7 ft range across the trade wind belt south of
20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. A low pressure 
area near 30N140W will lift northward on Fri, allowing high 
pressure to build southward across the northern forecast waters,
and freshen winds north of the ITCZ and west of 125W Fri night
through Sun, with seas building to 7-9 ft.

$$
Mundell