000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 08N90W to 08N103W. The ITCZ continues from 08N103W to 06N124W to beyond 02N140W. A surface trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 08N126W to 03N128W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection persists from 02N-09N between 80W-86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 03N-08N between 113W-118W, and E of the surface trough axis from 04N-07N between 122W-126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and extends southeast across the regional waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the open offshore waters south of Baja to the waters south of Puerto Angel. NW swell off Baja California Norte is presently producing seas of 5-7 ft that will gradually subside to 5-6 ft on Fri. Winds will increase slightly N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as a new high pressure center develops near 30N130W. Gulf of California: Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the next several days. Increasing westerly winds of 20-25 kt are expected over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental during the evening hours through Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly gentle to moderate W-NW winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec region the remainder of the week. The GFS Model suggests a brief gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon morning as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Northerly winds of 20-25 kt and seas in the 5-7 ft range are presently expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will prevail across the forecast area during the next several days. Seas will generally remain in the 4-6 ft range, except S of the Galapagos Islands where long period SW swell will maintain sea heights of 6-7 ft. Looking ahead, the next SW swell event is forecast to build seas up to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by the middle of the next week. Streamlines analysis suggests that the monsoon trough is now present roughly E of 105W. The GFS model is forecasting a weak low pressure developing along the monsoon trough this upcoming weekend. Since yesterday, strong convection has persisted just S of western Panama and Costa Rica. Upper atmospheric conditions are currently favorable for any convection that develops across this area to become strong, and capable of producing torrential rainfall and strong gusty winds. Look for strong thunderstorm activity to prevail across the waters east of 95W this weekend before upper level conditions start to stabilize. Recent scatterometer data provided observations of strong to minimal gale force winds is association with a large cluster of moderate to strong convection that covers the waters from 02N to 09N between 80W and 86W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds to the north of the ITCZ to 18N and west of 125W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range across the tradewind belt south of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. A low pressure remains near 30N140W. This persistent low pressure will finally lift northward allowing high pressure to build southward across the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ will tighten and act to freshen winds north of the ITCZ and west of 125 late Fri into the weekend. Seas there will build 7-9 ft. $$ GR