011 AXPZ20 KNHC 151508 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N76W to 07N102W. The ITCZ continues from 07N102W to 06N120W to beyond 02N140W. A surface trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and extends from 09N125W to 03N127W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection is seen from 02N-09N between 81W-86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 03N-08N between 110W-118W, and near the trough axis from 04N-09N between 121W-130W. Similar convection is N of the trough axis from 07N-10N between 95W-102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and extends southeast across the regional waters to near 15N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the open offshore waters south of Baja to the waters south of Puerto Angel. NW swell off Baja California Norte is presently producing seas of 6-7 ft that will gradually subside to 5-6 ft on Fri. Winds will increase slightly N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night through Sat night as the high pressure shifts southward to near 31N. Gulf of California: Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the next several days, with the exception of moderate NW winds over the northern part of the Gulf today. Increasing westerly winds of 20-25 kt are expected over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental this evening, and again Fri evening. Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly gentle W-NW winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec region this week. The GFS Model suggests a brief gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon morning as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Northerly winds of 20-25 kt winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range are presently expected. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, except for fresh to locally strong offshore gap winds across the Papagayo region this morning with seas of 6-7 ft. Little change in wind conditions are expected through through Fri. Moderate sized SW swell moving into the regional waters will dominate the offshore waters through Fri. As previously mentioned, a large cluster of moderate to strong convection is occurring mostly over water from 02N-09N between 81W-86W. Upper atmospheric conditions are currently favorable for any convection that develops across the area to become strong, and capable of producing torrential rainfall and strong gusty winds. Look for strong thunderstorm activity to prevail across the area east of 95W through Sat night before upper level conditions start to stabilize. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds to the north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range across the tradewind belt south of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail, except for fresh southerly winds across the far northwestern waters, as low pressure persists to the west of 140W. This persistent low pressure will finally lift northward and just beyond the NW waters on Fri. This will allow high pressure to sink southward to along 31N late Thu through Sat. The pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ will tighten and act to freshen winds north of the ITCZ and west of 124W late Fri into the weekend. Seas there will build 7-9 ft. $$ GR