000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141520
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 06N80W to 08N93W to 07N98W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 08N120W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N
between 77W and 95W, including the coast of Colombia. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 
08N between 89W and 105W, from 03N to 08N between 110W and 120W,
and within about 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 120W
and 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting 
moderate northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula. 
Gentle to moderate northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere 
across the open offshore waters south of Baja. Mainly light to 
gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the
next several days, with the exception of gentle to moderate
southerly winds over the northern part of the Gulf today and
tonight. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of Baja California 
Norte, 5-7 ft off Baja California Sur, 4-6 ft over the remainder 
of the open waters off Mexico, and 3-4 ft over the northern Gulf 
of California. 

Moderate NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte 
through the week, becoming fresh near the coast each late
afternoon, as the ridge persists. NW swell off Baja California 
Norte will slowly subside to 5-6 ft by Thu night. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through late Thu. Winds 
will increase slightly Fri and Sat as the high pressure shifts 
southward to near 31N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, except
for fresh to locally strong offshore gaps winds across the 
Papagayo region. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Little change in 
wind conditions are expected through through Fri. Moderate SW 
swell moving into the regional waters will dominate the offshore 
waters through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure across the NE Pacific extends southward along 135W
into the northern forecast waters and then southeastward to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this 
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting moderate NE-E winds north of the ITCZ to 20N 
and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the waters N of 28N between 
120W and 127W, and 7-8 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Seas in the 6-7 ft
range prevail across the tradewind belt south of 15N. No 
significant change is expected through early Thu. High pressure 
will sink southward to along 31N late Thu through Fri. This will 
tighten the pressure gradient and freshen winds north of the ITCZ
Fri into the weekend. Northerly swell will gradually subside to
less than 8 ft across the NE waters waters later today. 

$$
GR