000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052144
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N86W
to 05N94W. The ITCZ begins near 04N98W to 04N117W to 03N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 12N between 80W to 92W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 07N between 98W to 108W and from 03N to 06N 
between 119W to 141W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary ridge sits west of Baja California and lower
pressure is currently over the SW CONUS. The pressure gradient
from this pattern will continue to support fresh to locally 
strong NW winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters.
The strongest winds are expected within 120 nm off the coast 
mainly N of Punta Eugenia. These conditions are forecast to 
prevail through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are 
expected over Baja California Sur offshores through the end of
the week. Seas over the Baja California adjacent waters will 
range between 5 to 8 ft through Thu night, with the highest seas
over the northern peninsula offshores. By Fri night and into the
weekend, strong northerly winds will move into the offshores of
Baja California Norte. This will also bring 8 to 11 ft seas in
the offshores as far south as 24N from Fri through the weekend. 

Light winds prevail across the Gulf of California. These winds
will increase moderate to fresh briefly in the southern Gulf of
California by Tue and diminish by Tue night. Light to gentle
winds will continue to prevail the rest of the week. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds are expected to continue through Fri with 
seas to 6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong northerly winds continue
across the region with seas up to 8 ft. These winds are expected
to diminish by Tue early afternoon and seas to subside. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail through the rest of the week with 
3-4 ft seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong east-northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will
continue through tonight with seas to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse again on Tue night and end by Wed morning with seas to
5 ft. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse over the Gulf of
Panama through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail the 
rest of the week. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are 
expected across the rest of the region. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the open forecast waters N of 17N W of
116W. Over the far NW forecast waters, moderate to fresh NW to W
winds with seas to 11 ft are near a cold front west of 140W. The
front will continue to weaken today before dissipating tonight. 
NW swell associated with the front will continue to support seas 
to 9 ft over the far NW waters through Tue before subsiding by
Tue afternoon.

Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the ridge to the north 
and the ITCZ will continue to support moderate to fresh trades 
from 05N to 20N W of 120W through tonight. Seas in this region 
will build to 8 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Quiescent conditions
can be expected from Tue through the rest of the week across this
area. 

$$
AReinhart