950 AXPZ20 KNHC 030338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Apr 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong north to northeast gale- force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to 45 kt, will slowly diminish through Sat, becoming minimal gale force by early Sun, then diminishing to below gale force Sun afternoon. Wave heights will remain in the 11-17 ft range into Sat. Swell generated by this event will spread well to the west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this weekend. Mariners are urged to use caution due to the hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Volcanic Ash Advisory: Pacaya volcano in southern Guatemala near 14.4N 90.6W is active, producing emissions of volcanic ash. The ash plume is spreading southwestward over the coastal waters of Guatemala north of 13N between 91W and 93W. Some of the ash may reach the ocean surface. There have been no reports of volcanic ash reaching the surface or reduced visibilities, but mariners are urged to exercise caution. Report observations to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both the Gale Warning and on the Volcanic Ash Advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N89W to 04N98W. The ITCZ continues from 04N98W to 04N114W to 02N118W to 04N125W to 02N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 07N between 85W and 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate northwest to north winds west of Baja California. High pressure building west of Baja California will tighten the gradient, with these winds increasing to fresh on Sat through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Wave heights are generally 5 to 6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Ashfall Advisory for the Pacaya Volcano in southern Guatemala. Fresh to strong east to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. ASCAT data indicates an area of fresh to strong northeast winds from 07N to 10N between 87W and 93W. Wave heights in the Papagayo region are in 8-10 ft range. Altimeter data also shows sea heights of 8-9 ft within the area of winds noted above. These sea are due to a mix of northeast and southwest swell. Fresh to strong offshore northeast gap winds will continue across in Papagayo region into early next week. Large seas will continue west of Central America, from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala, from swell generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo source areas through Sun evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1020 mb is analyzed near 27N129W. The resultant gradient between the high and lower pressures in the tropics is supporting fresh northeast to east trade winds from 07N to 16N based on recent scatterometer data. Wave heights within this area are 8-9 ft in mixed north and southerly swell. Little change is expected through the weekend over this part of the discussion area. In the far NW waters, a low pressure system tracking east along 33N will drag a weak cold front into the area Sat night and Sun. Wave heights produced by this low pressure system and cold front are forecast to build to the 8-11 ft Sun through Mon, with highest seas expected in the far NW part of the area. $$ Mundell