000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Apr 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong north northeast gale- force winds of 40-45 kt speeds, across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to 45 kt. These winds are forecast to slowly diminish through tonight, lowering to a peak of 40 kt early Sat and to minimal gale force by early on Sun, before diminishing to just below gale force on Sun afternoon. Wave heights will remain in the 11-17 ft range into Sat. Swell generated by this long- lived event will spread well to the west-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the weekend. Mariners navigating through these waters are urged to use caution due to hazardous marine conditions produced by this gale force gap wind event. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Volcanic Ash Advisory: Pacaya Volcano in southern Guatemala near 14.4N 90.6W is currently in a state of unrest and is producing emissions of volcanic ash. Although the ash plume has thinned out as it spreads south-southwestward over the coastal waters of Guatemala, some of it may be reaching the ocean surface north of 12N between 91W and 92W, possibly reducing the surface visibility. While there have been no reports of volcanic ash reaching the surface or reduced visibilities, mariners are urged to exercise caution. Report observations to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both the Gale Warning and on the Volcanic Ash Advisory. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia to 07N78W to 05N81W to 07N86W and to 04N96W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N110W to 05N120W to 04N130W and to beyond the area at 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 105W-108W, also within 120 nm south of the trough between 84W-87W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 78W-80W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 90W-93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a gale-force wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The present gradient supports generally gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore Baja California. High pressure building west of Baja California will tighten the gradient leading to these winds increasing to mainly fresh speeds on Sat and through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of light and variable winds from 15N to 18N east of 108W to the coast of Mexico. Wave heights within these areas of winds are in the range of 5-6 ft primarily due to mixed southwest and northwest swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Volcanic Ash Advisory in effect for the Pacaya Volcano in southern Guatemala. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. A partial Ascat pass indicates an area of fresh to strong northeast winds well to the west-southwest of the Gulf of Papagayo, roughly from 07N to 09N between 88W-93W. Wave heights in the Papagayo region are in the range of 8-10 ft. Latest altimeter data reveals wave heights of 8-9 ft within the area of winds well to the west-southwest of the Gulf of Papagayo. These wave heights are due to mixed northeast and southwest swell. The fresh to strong offshore northeast gap winds will continue across Gulf of Papagayo region into early next week. Wave heights will build from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala, due to a combination of swell emanating from from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas mixing with long-period southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27N131W. The resultant gradient between it and lower pressure in the sub-tropics and tropic regions is allowing for mainly fresh northeast to east to exist from 07N to 14N base on recent ascat data. Wave heights within this part of the area are 8-9 ft due to mixed north and south swell. Little change is expected through weekend over this part of the discussion area. The only exception will be in the far NW waters, where a low pressure system tracking eastward along 33N will drag a weak cold front into the area. Wave heights produced by this low pressure system and cold front are forecast to build to the 8-11 ft Sun through Mon, with the peak value of 11 ft expected in the far NW corner of the area. $$ Aguirre