000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292208 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled across the western Gulf of Mexico along 95W to the central Bay of Campeche today, and is aiding in producing strong northerly gap winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. However ASCAT satellite data from 1423 to 1632 UTC measured peak winds of only 30 kt during that period. Northerly gap winds across the Tehuantepec area have diminished below gale force a few hours before expected, and the gale warning has been discontinued. Winds near 30 kt and seas to 10 ft are expected to persist through the evening hours before winds and seas gradually diminish Tue, falling below 20 kt and 8 ft by late afternoon. Looking ahead, computer model guidance agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially early Thu morning and continuing into Sat of next weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 1007 mb low pres over W Colombia near 06N76W to 05N89W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 04N100W to 06N114W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 113W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have ended and the gale warning discontinued. Please the Special Features section above for more information. Elsewhere N winds are diminishing across Mexican offshore waters from moderate around parts of Baja California Norte to gentle to moderate across south portions. Wave heights are generally 4-5 ft in NW swell north of Cabo Corrientes. Mainly SW swell is maintaining 3 to 5 ft seas south of Cabo Corrientes. Winds are diminishing north of 20N, but seas will build off Baja California Tue through mid week due to new NW swell. Looking ahead, strong gales are possible again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu as another cold front moves into the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... ASCAT satellite data from 1424 to 1539 UTC depicted strong NE winds offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo as far west as 87W, where seas are assumed to be near 8 ft. Fresh N gap winds are also possible through the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere light to gentle winds continue over the Central American offshore waters with 3-5 ft seas. Fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through the end of the week, and maintain an area of seas 8 ft and greater downwind to 95W. Seas will also build from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala due to seas generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind areas mixing with longer period SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from strong high pressure centered across the NE Pacific to offshore of Baja California Sur. Afternoon scatterometer satellite data showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of 121W. Altimeter satellite data indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 120W. The high pressure north of the area will weaken and shift east ahead of a cold front moving through the northeast Pacific. This will allow the area of fresh trade winds to decrease to mainly west of 135W through mid week. Large N swell accompanying the front will reach as far south as 25N between 118W and 135W by mid week. Farther east, seas will build to at least 8 ft from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W due to east swell generated from gap wind flow and persistent longer period SW swell. $$ Stripling