000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290851
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving through
the western Gulf of Mexico currently. Gap winds to gale force 
are following the front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Seas will build to 11 ft 
this morning, mixing with a component of longer period S to SW 
swell. Winds are expected to be below gale force by early this 
evening while seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressure 
following in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico 
weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees on 
a second round of gales starting potentially Thu morning and 
continuing into the next weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N90W to 04N100W to 06N125W to beyond 02N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 
110W and 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are starting currently as a
front moves through southern Mexico. Please the Special Features
section above for more information.

Elsewhere NW winds are diminishing across Mexican offshore waters
from moderate to fresh around parts of Baja California to gentle
to moderate, as noted in recent ship observations and
scatterometer satellite data. Wave height that were previously 4
to 6 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California are
subsiding this morning. Mainly SW swell is maintaining 3 to 5 ft
seas south of Cabo Corrientes, with mainly NW swell supporting 3
to 5 ft seas farther north. Light smoke due to agricultural and 
forest fires is noted over the offshore waters south of Cabo 
Corrientes.

For the forecast, Winds are diminishing north of 20N, but seas 
will build off Baja California through mid week due to NW swell. 
Looking ahead, strong gales are possible again in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Thu as another cold front moves into the region. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds at Liberia, Costa Rica are indicative
of fresh to strong gap winds persisting across the nearby Gulf of
Papagayo and adjacent coastal areas of Nicaragua. In addition,
an altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 7 ft about 300 nm
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, in what is likely the plume 
of fresh to strong gap. Seas to 9 ft are possible in this plume.
Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh gap winds are also 
possible through the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere gentle to 
moderate winds continue over the Central American offshore waters
with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will 
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region, through the end of the 
week. Seas will build from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala due 
to seas generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind 
areas mixing with longer period SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the area 
to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data 
showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 125W. Altimeter
satellite pass indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, 
likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell 
of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 120W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will 
weaken and shift east ahead of a cold front moving through the
northeast Pacific. This will allow the area of fresh trade winds
to decrease to mainly west of 135W through mid week. Large N
swell accompanying the front will reach as far south as 25N
between 118W and 135W by mid week. Farther east, seas will build
to at least 8 ft from 05N to 10N between 95W and 110W due to east
swell generated from gap wind flow and persistent longer period
SW swell.

$$
Christensen