000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 29 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving through the western Gulf of Mexico currently. Gap winds to gale force will follow the front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Seas will build to 11 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell. Winds are expected to be below gale force by early Mon evening while seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu morning and continuing into the next weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N87W. The ITCZ continues from 06N87W to 04N100W to 04N130W beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 110W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Earlier scatterometer satellite data and ship observations showed fresh NW winds off the Pacific coast of Baja California, and in the central and southern Gulf of California. Seas estimated to be in the range of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell off Baja California, and 4 to 6 ft in the southern Gulf of California, and 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico, with 2 to 4 ft seas in SW swell. Light smoke due to agricultural and forest fires is noted over the offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California though early Monday. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec late tonight, reaching gale force, then diminishing late Mon. Looking ahead, gap winds to gale force will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E winds at Liberia, Costa Rica are indicative of fresh to strong gap winds persisting across the nearby Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent coastal areas of Nicaragua. In addition, an altimeter satellite pass showed seas to 7 ft about 300 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, in what is likely the plume of fresh to strong gap. SEas to 8 ft are possible in this plume. Fresh gap winds are also possible through the Gulf of Panama, with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds continue over the Central American offshore waters with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through the end of the week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the area to Baja California Sur. Earlier scatterometer satellite data showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 140W. Altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 116W. For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will support the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week. $$ Christensen