000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280308 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow the front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun night. Seas will build to 11 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell. Winds are expected to be below gale force by early Mon evening while seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu morning and continuing into the next weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 06N110W to 03N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 107W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds off the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur, and in the southern Gulf of California. Earlier ship observations and a scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate NW to N winds elsewhere north of 20N. Seas estimated to be are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell off Baja California, 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf of California, and 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes persist off southern Mexico, with 3 to 5 ft seas in SW swell. A few showers are possible among the Revillagigedo Islands. Light smoke due to agricultural and forest fires is noted over the offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California into Sun. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec late Sun night, reaching gale force. Please see the special features section for further details. Looking ahead, gap winds to gale force will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds continue in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to strong tonight with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue afterward to Mon. Light variable winds are elsewhere in the Central American offshore waters with wave heights to six in long period SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast of the northern Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, while moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the area to Baja California Sur. An upper low has been supporting the development of a broad surface trough from 20N to 25N, which is now weakening near 137W. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 130W. An altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, likely with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W. For the forecast, the trough will dissipate Sun as continues to move west of the area, allowing high pressure to build north of the area. This pattern will support and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week. $$ Christensen