909 AXPZ20 KNHC 272207 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow the front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sun night. Seas will build to 11 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period S to SW swell. Winds are expected to be below gale force by early Mon evening while seas will subside by Tue morning as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu morning and continuing into the next weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 03N80W to 05N84W to 06N89W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N90W to 06N115W to 02N139W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 80W and 86W, and from 04N to 13N between 110W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Mainly moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range are currently noted off Baja California while moderate to locally fresh NW winds are in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. Gentle variable wind and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California this evening through Sun night. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec late Sun night, reaching gale force. Please see the special features section for further details. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish across the region into mid week, except for increased NW swell off Baja California Norte by Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds continue in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to strong tonight with seas building to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will continue afterward to Mon. Light variable winds are elsewhere in the Central American offshore waters with wave heights to six in long period SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast of the northern Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, while moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a high pressure centered north of the area to Baja California Sur. Fresh trade winds area noted from 05N to 22N west of 130W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W. For the forecast, an upper low may support the development of a broad surface trough north of 20N near 140W. But this will shift west of the area through Sun, allowing high pressure to build north of the area. This pattern will support and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week. $$ Ramos