000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272139
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow the
front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Sun night and early Mon morning. Seas will build
to 12 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period
S to SW swell. Winds and seas will diminish through Tue morning 
as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf
of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance
agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu
morning and continuing into the next weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 03N80W to 05N84W to 06N89W. The 
ITCZ is analyzed from 06N90W to 06N115W to 02N139W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 80W and 86W, and from 04N to 13N between 110W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are currently noted 
off Baja California through the offshores of Colima, Mexico, as 
well as in the Gulf of California, however with seas to 3 ft. 
Gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the offshores
of Michoacan to the Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area will 
support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California
late this afternoon through Sun night. Farther south, northerly 
gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec late Sun night 
into Mon, reaching gale force. Looking ahead, winds and seas 
diminish across the region into mid week, except for increased NW
swell off Baja California Norte by Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds continue in the 
Gulf of Papagayo, with light variable winds elsewhere in Central
American offshore waters. Seas are around 4 ft off western 
Panama, but higher wave heights to six feet are likely elsewhere,
with long period SW swell still active in the area. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast
of the Azuero Peninsula of Panama and along the coast of 
Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will 
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, while 
moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. 
Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate 
long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 43N134W to Baja California Sur. Fresh trade winds area
noted from 05N to 22N west of 130W. Seas are estimated to be 8 
to 9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell. Long 
period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east 
of 110W. 

For the forecast, an upper low may support the development of a 
broad surface trough north of 20N near 140W. But this will shift 
west of the area through Sun, allowing high pressure to build 
north of the area. This pattern will support and expand the area 
of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as 
far east as 120W through mid week.

$$
Ramos