000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move through
the Gulf of Mexico Sun. Gap winds to gale force will follow the
front through the Tehuantepec isthmus and into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Sun night and early Mon morning. Seas will build
to 12 ft by Mon morning, mixing with a component of longer period
S to SW swell. Winds and seas will diminish through Tue morning 
as high pressure following in the wake of the front over the Gulf
of Mexico weakens and shifts east. Looking ahead, model guidance
agrees on a second round of gales starting potentially Thu
morning and continuing into the next weekend.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N81W to 07N89W. The ITCZ is 
analyzed from 07N89W to 06N110W to 05N130W to 01N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N 
E of 85W, and from 03N to 12N between 112W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent observations indicate a trough reaching from the southern
Rockies across Sonora, the central portion of Baja California 
Sur before extending into the adjacent Pacific waters. Recent
scatterometer and altimeter satellite data indicates gentle to 
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are currently noted off Baja 
California, with light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of 
California. South of 20N, gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are 
noted off southern Mexico, except for moderate to fresh NW winds 
off Cabo Corrientes, as observed by the NOAA Ship Ron Brown.

For the forecast, the trough will dissipate through today. High 
pressure building north of the area behind the front will support
fresh to strong NW winds across the central Gulf of California 
tonight. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to 
return to Tehuantepec late Sun night into Mon, possibly reaching 
gale force. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish across the 
region into mid week, except for increased NW swell off Baja 
California Norte by Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to 
fresh northeast to east gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo, but 
light westerly breezes elsewhere in Central American offshore 
waters. There is no recent information about winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo, but at least fresh gap winds are likely in that area. A
recent altimeter pass showed seas around 4 ft off western 
Panama, but higher wave heights to six feet are likely elsewhere,
with long period SW swell still active in the area. A few 
showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast
of the Azuero Peninsula of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds will 
persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, while 
moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. 
Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate 
long- period SW swell will prevail across the region the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 42N135W to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data indicate fresh trade winds from 07N to 20N west 
of 130W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a 
component of northerly swell. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft 
dominates the tropical waters east of 110W. 

For the forecast, an upper low centered near 25N135W may support
the development of a broad surface trough north of 20N near 140W.
But this will shift west of the area through Sun, allowing high 
pressure to build north of the area. This pattern will support 
and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N 
to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through mid week.

$$
Ramos