000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270338 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Mar 27 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N95W to 06N115W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 112W and 118W, from 05N to 07N between 128W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ship and land-based observations indicate a trough reaching from the southern Rockies across Sonora, the northern portion of Baja California Sur before extending into the adjacent Pacific waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are currently noted off Baja California, with light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. South of 20N, gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted off southern Mexico, except for moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, as observed by the NOAA Ship Ron Brown. For the forecast, the trough will dissipate through early Sat. High pressure building north of the area behind the front will support fresh to strong NW winds across the central Gulf of California Sat night. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec late Sun night into Mon, possibly reaching gale force. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish across the region into mid week, except for increased NW swell off Baja California Norte by Wed night. Looking further ahead, global models are indicating another round of gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earler scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo, but light westerly breezes elsewhere in Central American offshore waters. There is no recent information about winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, but at least fresh gap winds are likely in that area. A recent altimeter pass showed seas around 4 ft off western Panama, but higher wave heights to six feet are likely elsewhere, with long period SW swell still active in the area. A few showers and thunderstorms are active just off the southwest coast of the Azuero Peninsula of Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, while moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long- period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 44N135W to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 130W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell. Additional northerly swell is evident north of 29N, accompanying the weak trough approaching from the north. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area and will support and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through early next week. $$ Christensen