000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 01N79W. The ITCZ is 
analyzed from 06N85W to 06N112W, then continues west of a 
trough from 04N121W to beyond 03N140W. A second ITCZ is noted 
from 03S112W to beyond 04S140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scatterometer satellite pass from this afternoon shows moderate
NW winds behind a surface trough moving southeast from northern 
Gulf of California to the adjacent Pacific waters. Seas around
this area are between 8 to 9 feet with NW swell reaching
Guadalupe Island. Lighter winds are noted over central and 
southern Gulf of California while moderate to fresh winds are 
present north of Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas off Baja
California are 5 to 7 ft. Farther south, light to gentle breezes
prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell in the 
Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes, with light 
smoke from agricultural and forest fires onshore over much of 
this area. 

For the forecast, the NW moderate to fresh winds will continue 
over the Pacific waters as the trough moves southward through 
this evening. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere. High pressure behind the trough will build modestly 
across the area Sat and Sun to freshen the northerly wind flow 
across the offshore waters and southern Gulf of California. 

Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to 
Tehuantepec late Sun into Mon, possibly reaching gale force. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh
northeast to east gap winds into the Gulf of Papagayo, but light
westerly breezes elsewhere in Central American offshore waters. 
An altimeter pass this afternoon confirmed seas of 4 to 6 ft, 
likely in SW swell. No significant weather is observed, but 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active just south of 
Cocos Island, along a trough extending from 06N77W to 02N80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds persist 
across Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, while 
moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. 
Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate 
long-period SW swell will prevail across the region the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered north of the
area near 43N137W to 20N118W then eastward into the Revillagigedo
Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate 
to fresh trade winds from 07N to 15N west of 110W. Seas are 
estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a component of 
northerly swell. Additional northerly swell is evident north of 
29N, accompanying the weak trough approaching from the north. 
Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters 
east of 110W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area and
will support and expand the area of fresh trades with 8 to 9 ft 
seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through early 
next week.

$$
Torres