000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Mar 26 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 03N140W. A second ITCZ is analyzed from 03N109W to 02N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 85W and 92W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from around 06 UTC indicated SW gap winds of 20 to 30 kt in the northern Gulf of California, ahead of a trough moving across far southern California and the adjacent Pacific waters. Seas in this area of the Gulf of California north of 29N are 5 to 8 ft, as confirmed by a pair of recent altimeter satellite passes. A ridge extends along roughly 20N, south of the trough, supporting gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Gulf of California and the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas off Baja California are 5 to 7 ft, although NW swell up to 8 ft is reaching the waters around Guadalupe Island. Farther south, light to gentle breezes prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell in the Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes, with light smoke from agricultural and forest fires onshore over much of this area. For the forecast, the strong southwesterly winds will continue in the northern Gulf of California through this morning as the trough moves southward across Baja California Norte and into NW Mexico tonight through late today. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. High pressure behind the trough will build modestly across the area Sat and Sun to freshen the northerly wind flow across the offshore waters and southern Gulf of California. Farther south, northerly gap winds are expected to return to Tehuantepec Mon, possibly reaching gale force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate northerly gap winds into the northern Gulf of Panama, but light westerly breezes elsewhere in Central American offshore waters. However, the satellite passes missed the Gulf of Papagayo region, where it is estimated moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring. An altimeter pass from around 03 UTC confirmed seas of 4 to 6 ft, likely in SW swell. No significant weather is observed, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are active just south of Cocos Island, along a trough extending roughly east to west along 06.5N. For the forecast, fresh to strong offshore gap winds persist across Gulf of Papagayo region through early next week, while moderate to fresh northerly winds dominate the Gulf of Panama. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate long- period SW swell will prevail across the region the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 45N144W to 20N125W then eastward into the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent buoy and ship observations along with recent scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate to fresh trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W. Seas are estimated to be 8 to 9 ft in this area, with a component of northerly swell. Additional northerly swell is evident north of 28N, accompanying the weak front approaching from the north. Long period SW swell of 4 to 6 ft dominates the tropical waters east of 110W. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area will support and expanded area of fresh trades and 8 to 9 ft seas from 06N to 20N reaching as far east as 120W through early next week. $$ Christensen